Service Plays - Wednesday 7/28/21


Matt Severance

ST. LOUIS @ CLEVELAND | 07/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: Always a concern with picking this early (also sometimes great value), but this total seems high as according to weather forecasts, winds will be blowing straight in at Progressive Field at around 8 mph for the Wednesday matinee. Cleveland pitcher Zach Plesac has been getting a bit better each time out since returning from the IL and has a 2.91 ERA during the day. The Cards' Kwang Hyun Kim has a 2.88 ERA overall and has allowed just two runs over his past 25 innings. Neither pitcher has been seen previously by the opposition, either.


Green Falcon Picks (of Green Pitch Sports)

Union La Calera - CD Palestino
Chile, Primera Division, 02:30 CET (Jul 29) / 8:30 PM ET
1.5 Units: CD Palestino +0.25 -133


Insider Sports Report

4* L.A. Dodgers (Buehler) -130 over San Francisco (Desclafani)
Range: -115 to -155

3* Washington (Corbin)/Philadelphia (Wheeler) OVER 8
Range: 7.5 to 8.5

3* Colorado (Gonzalez)/L.A. Angels (Heaney) OVER 9
Range: 8.5 to 9.5


Primetime Sports Picks

4 Unit --> N.Y. Yankees (Cortes) +130 over Tampa Bay (Wacha)

3 Unit --> Detroit (Peralta) +135 over Minnesota (Happ)

3 Unit --> Houston (Odorizzi)/Seattle (Kikuchi) OVER 8.5


Justin Perri

OVER 10.5
ANALYSIS: This is the best hitting environment of the day by far. If you watch the Early Edge you know that Mike McClure is also backing this play. I have been picking on Twins starter J.A. Happ all season, and I don't necessarily see the Tigers' Wily Peralta as all that much better. When Peralta faced the Twins on July 11, the game finished with 21 runs. The moment a result like that has a non-negligible value in the distributions, it becomes almost a must-play for how my betting systems work. Go Over.

OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO | 07/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: This line has strangely fallen from this morning, and I do not agree with it so let's grab it at eight to snag a nice push condition. Blake Snell has been pretty terrible in day games (7.40 ERA) compared to when he gets to pitch at night (3.86). On top of that, the Padres' shiny new batting order with Adam Frazier looks to be formidable even for a pitcher like Sean Manaea. Factor in the below average Air Density Index in San Diego, and I think we should have a good chance to see a high level of scoring. Eight runs should not be insurmountable.


John Bollman

OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO | 07/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: We’ve got a battle of southpaws in San Diego today with Blake Snell vs. Sean Manaea. Manaea is coming off a 13 strikeout performance and should be able to get deep into the game. Blake Snell has been very hit or miss, and the Athletics are good at taking their walks. Neither of these teams are exceptional against lefties so take the value in the dog.

ANALYSIS: The Tigers continue to profit as big underdogs after a big comeback at +170 last night, and they continue to be underdogs. Willy Peralta has a 2.56 ERA in seven starts this season and he has allowed just one run in 12 IP against the Twins in July. JA Happ allowed 10 runs in 14 IP in his two starts against the Tigers in July. Josh Donaldson is out of the lineup, take the Tigers at plus money.


Top Rank Sports Picks
D★ Colorado (Gonzalez)/L.A. Angels (Heaney) OVER 9
C★ N.Y. Mets (Megill) -125 over Atlanta (Fried)

Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> N.Y. Yankees (Cortes) +130 over Tampa Bay (Wacha)
C Unit --> Detroit (Peralta) +135 over Minnesota (Happ)
C Unit --> Houston (Odorizzi)/Seattle (Kikuchi) OVER 8.5

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