Service Plays - Tuesday 9/14/21

Bettor Days

Member
Ben Burns

League: MLB
Competition: Cincinnati Reds(Miley) vs Pittsburgh Pirates(Peters)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 06:35 pm ET
Bet Type: Moneyline
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -153
Analysis:
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. If the Reds want to make the Wild Card, these are the type of games they absolutely need to win. Miley is 12-5 with a 2.89 ERA. He averages six innings per start and he's coming off a gem. All he did was allow one run through seven complete innings, striking out eight, without walking a batter. In his last two road starts, he's allowd one combined run through 14 innings. On the other hand, Peters hasn't gone more than five innings in a start since 2019. The Reds won 10-0 the last time Miley faced the Pirates. I expect another big win in this one.
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League: MLB
Competition: Chicago Cubs(Sampson) vs Philadelphia Phillies(Gibson)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 07:05 pm ET
Bet Type: Moneyline
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -187
Analysis:
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Numerous advantages for the Phillies in this one. Gibson is 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his 11 "home" starts. His teams are 10-1 in those games. Last time here, he pitched six shutout innings. The Phillies won 7-0. Sampson only has a couple of starts under his belt this season. In those nine innings, he's given up three home runs. In fact, dating back to 2019, he's allowed at least a home run in seven straight games. A closer look reveals that in just a 34 1/3 inning span, he served up 12 long balls. Phillies are 8-2 as home favorites in the -175 to -250 range. Expect them to improve on those stats here.

League: MLB
Competition: Tampa Bay Rays(Rasmussen) vs Toronto Blue Jays(Berrios)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 07:07 pm ET
Bet Type: Over / Under
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Under 9 (-110)
Analysis:
I'm playing on Toronto/TB UNDER the total. Yes, the Blue Jay bats have been hot. Same for the Tampa bats, before yesterday. However, both starters are in excellent form and I'm expecting a pitcher's duel this evening. Berrios is 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP his past three starts. Over that 3-game span, he's struck out 26 while walking just two. Dominant numbers. Rasmussen doesn't go deep into games but he's also allowed one run or less in six straight starts. Over his past three starts, he's got a 1.93 ERA with 8 K's against just one walk. He hasn't allowed a HR in any of his past five starts either. Prior to yesterday's "push," the UNDER was a perfect 5-0 the past five times that these teams faced each other. Look for a low-scoring affair.

League: MLB
Competition: St. Louis Cardinals(Woodford) vs New York Mets(Stroman)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 07:10 pm ET
Bet Type: Moneyline
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: New York Mets -158 (5Dimes)
Analysis:
I'm playing on NY. After getting pounded yesterday, I expect the Mets to bounce back big tonight. Despite not having the wins to show for it, Stroman (2.87 ERA, 1.123 WHIP) just keeps delivering. Last time out, he allowed just one run, on only four hits, through 6 1/3 innings. He struck out seven without walking a batter. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven straight starts. He's also gone six or more innings in four of his past five. Stroman will finally get some support in this one. Woodford is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.833 WHIP his past three starts, averaging just four innings. Look for the Mets to bounce back and improve to 15-10 the past 25 times that they were off a shutout loss.

League: MLB
Competition: San Diego Padres(Arrieta) vs San Francisco Giants(DeSclafani)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 09:45 pm ET
Bet Type: Run Line
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5 (-130)
Analysis:
I'm playing SD on the run-line (+1.5 runs) These teams are currently going in opposite directions and the Giants won big yesterday. However, despite all the losing, the Padres are still alive in the Wild Card race. That said, they desperately need to go on a run. After getting pounded yesterday, I expect a much better effort today. True, Arrieta has seen better days. He was relatively solid in his last start though and he knows his team desperately needs him tonight. He held high-scoring Houston to three runs, on only three hits and one walk. Desclafani has only gone more than five innings in one of his past seven starts. In fact, over that 7-game span, he's gone a total of 26 2/3 innings. That's less than four innings per start. The Padres are 8-6 their last 14, after losing their previous three or more games. Expect the bats to come alive and for them to bounce back with at least the "run-line cover."
 

Bettor Days

Member
Demarco Crew

Al Demarco - San Francisco Run Line
Chris Jordan - Seattle Mariners
Gus Augustine - St. Louis Cardinals
Jay McNeil - San Diego Padres (Arrieta) over the San Francisco Giants (DeSclafani)
Kirby Maxwell - Atlanta Braves Run Line
Mitchell Newman - Tampa Bay Rays (Rasmussen) over the Toronto Blue Jays (Berrios)
Trace Adams - Philadelphia Phillies (Gibson) -1 1/2 runs over the Chicago Cubs (Sampson)
 

Bettor Days

Member
Andrew McInnis

D% - Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox -136 N Eovaldi (RHP), T Anderson (LHP) Must Start
 

Bettor Days

Member
Jack Winningham

Jack has two games today, he is parlaying them, but using a time zone hedge:
San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres
Cincinatti over the Pittsburgh Pirates
 

Bettor Days

Member
H&H Sports

MLB
Triple Dime - Braves -150
Triple Dime - Red Sox -135
Double Dime - Rays +138
Dime - Astros -1.5 runs [-130]
Dime - Dodgers -1.5 runs [-125]
 

Bettor Days

Member
Godfatherlocks

mlb
massive 5000 unit winner #4 of 5
2 top rated 2000 unit picks
*** massive 5000 unit pick ***
(5k winner #4 of 5 overall)
new york mets -170 (mlb)

*** top rated 2000 unit picks **
#1 - pittsburgh pirates +140 (mlb)
#2 - colorado rockies +135 (mlb)
 

Bettor Days

Member
Justin Perri

COLORADO @ ATLANTA | 09/14 | 7:20 PM EDT
OVER 9
ANALYSIS: The Rockies have picked it up on the road in the last few weeks. They’ve plated four or more runs in eight of their last 13 away games. On Tuesday, they play in Atlanta where the Over is 38-26-7 (only a 36.6 percent Under rate) and the air density is low. John Gray has been rough in his last few starts, with a 6.55 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in August followed by another subpar outing to open September. Touki Toussaint has looked off in his last two starts and gave up four earned runs in three innings to the Rockies two weeks ago. Hitters should be rested as both teams were off Monday, so runs should be scored.

N.Y. YANKEES @ BALTIMORE | 09/14 | 7:05 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: Gerrit Cole is on the mound Tuesday, but the Yankees are bleeding runs, allowing five-plus in each of their last nine games. The winds are blowing out at Camden Yards and Cole is known to be susceptible to home runs. The real advantage is that the Yankees have been scoring too, getting six or more runs on the board in their last three games. Now, they face Alexander Wells, a rookie with a .543 xSLG and a 7.15 ERA . I expect New York to build a large lead for their relievers and allow Baltimore to plate a few runs after Cole exits. Take the Over.

CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | 09/14 | 6:35 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: Matchups between these two teams this season have averaged 10.8 runs a game and have hit our needed number of nine in seven of 10 games this year. There’s lower than normal air density in Pittsburgh tonight as well, which should help the hitters. Pirates starter Dillon Peters doesn’t work long into games, is making just his fifth start this season and has a career .465 xSLG. Wade Miley has done well against the Pirates this season, but Pittsburgh has hit 12 home runs in 11 games this month. And the Pirates play better at PNC Park, where Miley has yet to pitch in 2021. Grab the total to go Over.
 

Bettor Days

Member
Matt Severance

COLORADO @ ATLANTA | 09/14 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -153
ANALYSIS: All the motivation is on the Braves' side, and Colorado pitcher Jon Gray is 0-4 with a 6.33 ERA (27.0 IP, 19 ER) through his last six starts. He has pitched five innings or fewer in five straight. Gray has been much worse on the road and at night, too. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 6-0 in its past six following an off day.
 

Bettor Days

Member
MLB Sharp Action

6:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (89-55) at Detroit Tigers (68-76)

This Interleague showdown features a pair of teams at opposite ends of the standings. Milwaukee is running away with the NL Central, leading the second place Reds by 14 games. Meanwhile, Detroit is 14.5 games back of the first-place White Sox in the AL Central. In tonight's series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Freddy Peralta (9-4, 2.69 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Wily Peralta (3-3, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a hefty -185 road favorite and Detroit a + 170 home dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk price and have steamed the Brewers up from -185 to -200. Big road favorites -200 or more coming off a win are 31-9 (78%) this season.

The Brewers qualify as they're riding a five-game win streak. Interleague favorites -200 or more are 324-126 (72%). Milwaukee is 71-40 against righties and 70-42 as a dog. Detroit is 43-54 against righties and 55-67 as a dog.

7:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (74-69) at New York Mets (72-73)

The Cardinals stole Monday night's series opener 7-0, cashing as a short -110 road favorite. St. Louis is now only a half-game back of the second NL Wild Card spot while the Mets are still in contention, trailing by 3.5 games.

In tonight's rematch, the Cardinals send out righty Jake Woodford (2-3, 4.28 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with ace righty Marcus Stroman (9-12, 2.87 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -135 home favorite and St. Louis as + 125 road dog. The public says give the plus money with the Cardinals, who have won three straight and are 5-1 over their last six. However, despite this public support, we've seen the Mets move from -145 to -155. This signals some sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" wiseguy action buying low on New York to bounce back and even up the series. Non-division home favorites are 450-285 (61%) this season. Home favorites who missed the playoffs the previous season are 270-179 (60%). The Mets are 43-29 at home this season, including 33-17 (66%) as a home favorite. St. Louis is 35-36 on the road. Pros are leaning over in this one. The total opened at 8 and the over is juiced up to -120, signaling a possible rise to 8.5. The forecast calls for high 70s with 10 mph winds blowing out to left-center.

8:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (84-59) at Texas Rangers (53-90)

The Astros crushed the Rangers 15-1 in last night's series opener, cruising easily as a -175 road favorite. In tonight's rematch, Houston starts ace righty Zack Greinke (11-5, 3.66 ERA) and Texas trots out fellow righty Jordan Lyles (8-11, 5.43 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a big -200 road favorite and the Rangers a + 180 home dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves in this one: They're backing the far better team with the better starting pitcher, steaming Houston up from -200 to -215. Big favorites -200 or more are 223-94 (70%) this season. Road favorites coming off a big win of five runs or more are 92-53 (63%). Houston is 52-33 against righties and 70-44 as a favorite. Texas is 29-58 against righties and 44-77 as a dog. The Astros have dominated their division, going 42-21 (67%) against AL West opponents, including 12-4 against the Rangers. Houston will lean on their bats in this one. The Astros are hitting .268, tops in MLB. Texas is hitting .231, which ranks 29th and second to last.
 

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